Quick Take
1. HYPE trades at $95.07 following a record near $95.97 on September 21—marking its third all-time high in a single week—and stands 20.38% higher over a seven-day span.
2. Payward, the parent company of Kraken, intends to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid’s infrastructure to US clients through its CFTC-regulated entities, pending regulatory approval, while a newly introduced lending product attracted $269 million in loans on its launch day.
3. Approximately 26% of the maximum HYPE supply is currently in circulation, resulting in a fully diluted valuation of roughly $90 billion compared to a market capitalization near $24 billion—a ratio viewed by this publication as a cautionary indicator.
Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, notched three all-time highs within a week, peaking near $95.97 on September 21 after previously touching $94.46 on September 19. It currently changes hands at $95.07, marking a 0.55% daily dip alongside a 20.38% weekly gain that outperforms Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana over the same timeframe.
Live price data via CoinGecko.
What did this site get wrong?
The editorial lean, rather than the analytical framework, which is a distinction worth keeping clear.
Back on September 15, with HYPE priced at $78.99, an article published here pointed out that the token had slipped beneath $80 just two weeks after an unlock previously flagged as structurally distinct due to its 46.6% allocation to insiders. That piece maintained a decidedly bearish slant.
However, the underlying analytical framework accommodated both directional outcomes. It stated that a swift recovery above $80 would classify the drop as a standard post-unlock retracement within an ongoing bull trend, whereas a drop below $74 would indicate persistent distribution. HYPE successfully reclaimed the $80 threshold and continued upward. Ultimately, the bullish scenario played out, delivering a better outcome for readers than the prevailing sentiment suggested.
It is equally relevant to note that the September 15 commentary refrained from asserting that the token unlock directly caused the price drop, characterizing the correlation as consistent with the framework rather than definitively proven. That cautious approach aged well. The token now sits about 20% higher than the price recorded in that report and roughly 70% above the $55.83 level observed during coverage of the August unlock.
Why is HYPE setting new records?
The rally is driven by regulated US access channels, a fresh source of demand, and a limited circulating float.
The primary catalyst involves Payward—Kraken’s parent—which plans to leverage its CFTC-regulated entities to launch on-chain perpetual futures on Hyperliquid for US-based clients, pending official clearance. Because US traders have traditionally been shut out of perpetual futures, a compliant gateway unlocks a market segment previously unavailable to the protocol. Any formal updates regarding this process will appear on the official CFTC website prior to public commentary.
The second driver is a manual borrowing function introduced on September 18, which pulled in $269 million in loans on day one. Permitting token holders to borrow against their HYPE holdings rather than liquidate them helps directly curb selling pressure.
The third factor is network adoption. Monthly active addresses climbed to a peak of 291,900, while Hyperliquid accumulated $429.04 million in revenue between January 1 and September 15. This positions the network as crypto’s largest revenue generator outside of Tether and Circle, capturing 12.62% of a $3.40 billion pool. Protocol earnings can be independently verified via DefiLlama.
What does HYPE’s supply structure mean?
It signifies that the majority of the token supply has yet to enter circulation—a detail that the current price surge is largely overlooking.
Fully diluted valuation (FDV) is calculated by multiplying the asset price by its maximum lifetime supply, and its proportion relative to market cap highlights how much token dilution lies ahead. Out of a maximum cap nearing 951.5 million tokens, approximately 251.4 million HYPE are actively circulating, representing roughly 26%.
At a price of $95.07, the market capitalization sits close to $23.9 billion while the FDV approaches $90.5 billion, yielding a multiple of about 3.8. According to this outlet’s FDV guidelines, any reading above 3 places a project in a tier where the bulk of future supply remains uncirculated, meaning rallies frequently encounter selling from vesting holders. HYPE continues to follow a monthly vesting schedule—highlighted by its largest release on August 29—with upcoming unlock dates tracked on DefiLlama’s calendar.
While this does not forecast an inevitable downturn, it clearly outlines the structural headwind facing any market participant.
Is HYPE expensive?
When evaluated against actual year-to-date revenue rather than a single-day snapshot, the valuation stands at roughly 39 times market cap and nearly 149 times on a fully diluted basis.
Hyperliquid’s earnings of $429.04 million across the 258 days leading up to September 15 annualize to an estimated $607 million. Measured against a market cap of $23.9 billion, this generates a revenue multiple of approximately 39—comparable to the figure calculated by this site during the August price peak using daily data. When using the FDV metric, the multiple expands to about 149.
To maintain perspective, this annualized baseline is more reliable than the single-day metric used in August because it smooths out daily volatility, though it still reflects a period of exceptionally high trading activity. Revenue tied directly to perpetual futures volume tends to contract whenever market volatility subsides.
What levels matter now?
Analysts are watching the $90 mark as the essential threshold to maintain the upward trend, with $100 serving as the subsequent psychological target.
Sustaining values above $90 preserves the breakout structure, and the $100 milestone lies roughly 5% above present trading levels. Below these markers, the $80 zone—identified as pivotal in our September 15 coverage—serves as the benchmark for whether the broader September advance remains intact.
Bottom line
HYPE achieved three record highs within a week near $95.97, fueled by Kraken parent Payward’s initiative to introduce US perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid and a lending rollout that captured $269 million on its opening day, even as only 26% of the supply circulates.
This publication acknowledges holding an overly cautious perspective in mid-September. More importantly, the fundamental realities remain unchanged: an FDV hovering near four times the market cap and a revenue multiple of roughly 39 indicate that the token is priced under the assumption that US regulatory approval will be successfully granted and executed. That clearance remains pending, and the remaining token supply is still on the horizon.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are extremely volatile and you can lose your entire stake. Always do your own research.
